Tuesday 18 September 2012

The Fed & ECB strike

Finally both the Fed and ECB have showed hands by" printing money".

ECB new steriod weapon known as Outright Monetary Transaction(OMT) will purchase distressed euro area government bonds(1 yr ~ 3yrs) ,notably Spain and Italy to bring down borrowing cost for these countries so as to buy time for these countries.

The ECB measure will give precious time for these countries to implement it austerity & economic reforms to bring thier economies back on good growth if they pursue it sucessfully.If failed,the consequence will be unthinkable.

For Fed, they created the money digitally known as QE and inject this money into the economy through Fed primary dealers such as Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanly/JP Morgan/UBS  n etc. However this time the QE is more powerful than the previous 2 as Fed have not set the termination date and will continue to "print money" if the labour market for US does not improve within Fed's expectation.

In a ideal way,the primary dealers could use it to buy/speculate securities (stocks/bond), commodities, currencies ,Oil ,loan the money for new business or existing business thus creating more jobs.With creation of more jobs, people will have income and the desire to spend , creating huge demand for goods and services which lead to increase in hiring of workers and this positive cycle continued which in turn spur the US economy.

However, the Fed's QE will created huge liquidity in the financial world ever seen on earth.For short term effects, we expect rising inflation in Asia since the abundant liquidity will most likely flow into Asia propping up property prices and equities market.

For long term wise,if Fed QE failed which we hope not ,we will witness a crash in our century ,worse than the 2009 GFC, and the transfer of wealth which will lead to the collaspe of the old rich and the rise of the new rich.
.